"Practical Verification of CLT Assumption for PERT Application"
: Project Management Development - Practice and Perspectives Conference Proceedings, Seite(n) 114-127, 2019
Practical Verification of CLT Assumption for PERT Application
Sprache des Titels:
Project Management Development - Practice and Perspectives Conference Proceedings
One of the assumptions in PERT is the possibility to apply central limit theorem (CLT) to approximate path duration times with standard normal distribution. However, CLT presumes certain conditions in order to be correctly applied. This issue is often not adressed in related literature. The aim of this paper is to examine the conditions under which PERT can accordingly be applied. We consider the conditions and aspects of their practical application in order to verify the admissibility of CLT for given activity time distributions. Lindeberg-Feller condition turned out to be the simplest technique to verify that results of a PERT analysis are free from problematic CLT application. We also summarize other issues with current probabilistic project evaluation and propose a chance constraint optimization model for probabilistic project analysis.