Financial evaluation under negative, stochastic or non-constant interest rate
Sprache des Vortragstitels:
In many economies ? including Europe and the United States ? real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates have been negative, sometimes as much as -2% (see e.g. Stiglitz, J. (18/4/2016), Abo-Zaid and Garin 2016).
And yet, as real interest rates have fallen, business investment has stagnated.
European Central Bank (ECB) has stepped up its stimulus, joining the Bank of Japan and a couple of other central banks in showing that the ?zero lower bound? ? the inability of interest rates to become negative ? is a boundary only in the imagination of conventional economists.
In Austria, already several banks (e.g. Bank Austria) have been put to court because of negative interest rates.
We should use more dynamical models of interest rates (see e.g. Stehlik et al. 2015 and Kiselak et al 2016), which can both oscillate (change signs) or stay negative/positive for a mid-long term. In this talk I will explain several behavioral aspects of negative interest rates. Solutions to important issues will be provided. I will answer important questions: e.g. why negative interest rates? What shall we change in computations of reserves, risk assessment measures or risk capital?